B) Moving Average forecast uses a number of historical actual data values to generate a forecast. It isuseful if we can assume that market demand will stay fairly steady over time.Moving AverageGames 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111 34,200 36,100 35,900 41,900 42,500 46,900 39,583 40,4802a 39,800 40,200 46,500 46,100 48,200 50,100 45,150 46,0413 38,200 39,100 43,100 43,900 44,200 45,900 42,400 43,1004b 26,900 25,300 27,900 30,100 33,900 36,300 30,067 30,5945 35,100 36,200 39,200 40,500 47,800 49,900 41,450 42,508C)Trend projections. According to the meaning of the trend projections that this technique fits a trendline to a series of historical data points and then projects the line into the future for medium to long-range forecasts.
Table C.1Trend Projections 2010
Year Time periodDemandper year x² xy2004 1 174,200 1174,2002005 2 176,900 4 353,8002006 3 192,600 9 577,8002007 4 202,500 16 810,0002008 5 216,600 25 1,083,0002009 6 229,100 36 1,374,60021 1,191,900 91 4,373,400
xˉ = 21/6 = 3.5 y= 1,191,900/6 = 198,650
Deriving Greater Value Through the ResNet
Deriving Greater Value Through the ResNet
Southwestern University found that over 90 percent of the traffic on its residential network was entertainment-related, causing them to severely restrict services and applications. This dramatically reduced bandwidth availability for academic purposes, took significant time away from ITS staff, and diverted funds from support services and application development. Learn how Southwestern partnered with Apogee to plan and implement a comprehensive solution, resulting in a 12-fold increase in bandwidth and freed-up resources.
Increasing Challenge: Entertainment vs. Academics
When Southwestern first deployed and began maintaining its ResNet infrastructure in the mid-1990s, the university’s ITS (Information Technology Services) department allowed reasonable access to academic resources, both on its own network and on the Internet. Students were able to access email services and surf the then limited, information-based Internet. As additional online content became available, Southwestern students found new uses for the Internet and their computers, such as downloading rich media (audio, and now video) and exchanging large files (pictures, digital home video, etc.).
Increasingly, ResNet became heavily used as a conduit for entertainment, rather than as the academic tool it was originally designed to be. The University estimated that prior to outsourcing 90 percent of its network traffic was entertainment related. Like many other institutions experiencing this problem, Southwestern turned to packet shaping hardware to limit the P2P (peer-to-peer) applications that were overrunning its network. Initially, this approach yielded positive results, while still allowing web surfing and email to continue unimpeded.
However, as peer-to-peer applications continued to evolve, and student use of the Internet for entertainment increased, Southwestern, like many schools, was forced to extend restrictions on services and applications. By the Spring of 2002, students’ activities on the ResNet had been reduced to restricted web surfing and email access. “We spent a significant amount of time identifying and monitoring an ever-changing number of P2P applications — a process which felt like chasing our own tails,” said Todd Watson, the Associate Director of Systems and Networking.
The impact on bandwidth availability, and the constant administrative pressure to stay ahead of the newest programs and services drew significant time from ITS staff, and diverted staff and funds from support services and application development. Bob Paver, Chief Information Officer of Southwestern University notes, “The natural question is, are we [Southwestern ITS] focusing on our strategic mission to the university of supporting academics and research, or simply being an Internet access provider for entertainment to students?’”
The Solution: Re-Evaluating Priorities
Southwestern decided outsourcing it’s ResNet would best solve the increasing issues. Ultimately, the University selected Apogee based upon the company’s focus and experience in higher education, and its willingness to craft a solution that would adapt to the University’s specific needs.
Apogee’s initial steps were to (1) implement important network hardware upgrades to ResNet and (2) facilitate additional bandwidth. The original ResNet network was completely replaced by Apogee at no cost to the University or ITS. The upgrade included the installation of new Cisco core routing and switching equipment. Additionally, hubs in the dormitories were replaced with new 10/100 switches, while building links were upgraded from 10 Mbps to 1000 Mbps.
A full DS3 Internet connection was utilized to replace Southwestern’s 3 megabits of Internet bandwidth for the entire campus. The DS3 delivers 10 megabits dedicated to the administrative network, and 35 megabits available for ResNet. This implementation gave the University a 12-fold increase in bandwidth.
In addition, Apogee provided move-in and setup assistance both on campus and by toll-free phone at the Apogee call center. This assistance acted as the first line of support for network issues and student questions, dramatically reducing the number of calls to the Southwestern Help Desk for the past three years – both during and after move-in.
The Result: Meeting Student Demand While Controlling Cost
Students are satisfied. “Dealing with Apogee was quick and painless and is ridiculously faster than it was before,” Breisen Miller, a Southwestern Junior majoring in English and History, told the Southwestern student newspaper, The Megaphone. “My only complaint is that it didn’t happen sooner,” said Southwestern Junior Sean O’Neil.
The network group is refocused on its core mission of supporting academic and enterprise needs. “I haven’t had to look at the bandwidth and data traffic flows since the project came online,” said Todd Watson, Senior Network Administrator. “I’ve already had enough time to implement a long-awaited systems project that normally would have been delayed with the start of the semesters and the related student network issues. And no network reconfiguration was required when the students returned from the summer break, which was a first since the release of Napster in 1999.”
Support calls have trickled to a fraction of their previous volume. Student problem calls have been drastically reduced. Virus infections still occur, but are confined by network design. Student computers are being isolated, cleaned, and returned to the network in an orderly and expeditious manner.
Southwestern is positioned to expand into new horizons for the upcoming fall. The 2006 ITS budget is now only required to cover one-third of the ports it did in 2002. As a result, three times the money is available this year to devote to the administrative network. These “found funds” will allow ITS to upgrade the administrative network. Wireless support for the network has already been added. Video-over-IP pilots were completed in 2005 as part of an effort to deliver streaming services (lectures and other rich media applications). In the past, such projects required budgetary sacrifices that slowed expansion of student services. No-cost upgrades are facilitated by Apogee on a continuing basis.
The 2003 Blaster virus that brought many campus networks around the country to a crawl were effectively handled by both the new administration system and the additional phone and technical support provided by Apogee. “I think that was the big silent story here this year. Blaster and other viruses were here, but the network operated normally. We were fortunate to have weathered the virus storm so well,” Paver said. The most important benefit appears to be the fact that ITS is currently enjoying additional manpower availability without hiring. The additional time has been used to implement new and innovative services and applications to support both academics and research
Apogee is the largest, most innovative provider of on-campus residential networks (ResNet) in higher education. Partnering with Apogee for ResNet services allows colleges and universities to enhance their network infrastructure while offloading the growing volume of administrative responsibilities associated with managing a student network. This partnership allows IT to focus on the mission-critical tasks of the university, such as growing the enterprise network and facilitating the development and use of e-learning tools and content. For more information about Apogee and its services, visit apogee.wpengine.com.
About Southwestern University
Southwestern University is a private, four-year, undergraduate, liberal arts college located in Georgetown, Texas. Founded in 1840, Southwestern is the oldest university in Texas. The school is affiliated with the United Methodist Church although the curriculum is nonsectarian. Southwestern offers 40 bachelor’s degrees in the arts, sciences, fine arts, and music as well as interdisciplinary and pre-professional programs. The university is accredited by the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools and the National Association of Schools of Music. For more information visit www.southwestern.edu.
Back to Case Studies List Next Case Study